The three step dance – creating a great company

Creating a gerat company in a relative vacuum is an exercise in complete trust that the entrepreneur knows what’s best for the customer, perhaps even without interaction with such a customer.  It’s probably happened, but not often enough to trust this method as a formula for success.

So, I’ve developed the three step dance in order to help form a repeatable method of how to create a great company from an early idea.

The first step: Involve potential customers early. Even if you know it all – wouldn’t it be an excellent plan to try your idea out on enough actual or potential customers to measure reasonable feedback?

You can use or discard the information you receive.  We now know that Steve Jobs created in relative secrecy several of his products that became massive industry drivers of change.  The iPad probably would have failed before production, had he used feedback and research from past failures of tablets in any previous form as a guide.  On the other hand, most products or services are created in response to a real or perceived need.  And most of us are not Steve Jobs.

[Email readers, continue here…]  The second step: Take feedback seriously.  Making the effort to gather metrics from the field in any form and then ignoring it, takes guts and determination – and in most cases a measure of stupidity.  As I analyze business plans, I usually ask the DBconsulting1entrepreneur early in the process whether s/he has tried this idea or prototype or mockup out on potential users.  And if so, what was the response?  And from how many people?  In what related universe?  I want to know that potential paying customers have been queried using enough information or a good enough model to get a real response worth taking seriously.  Without this, any information received is suspect.  And failure to make use of the information is a red flag for investors.

The third step: Reiterate and return to customers for comments. Seeking, then analyzing responses allows you to make changes to the plan and product in response.  But what if the changes create other problems for the customer, or miss the mark, or don’t drive these same customers to more positive responses?  The best possible second round feedback should come from the very same people who took the time to review the offering the first time. They have context and should see effort and progress.  Their comments should therefore be more valued than those from first-time respondents.

The three step dance:

  1. Involve your customers early.
  2. Take feedback seriously.
  3. Reiterate and return to customers for comments.

So, why not design your product using your real and potential customers as consultants?

Posted in Finding your ideal niche, Ignition! Starting up, Positioning | 1 Comment

Ready, aim, fire. Really?

You’ve surely heard the variations on this theme.  “Ready, fire aim” was popular in the 1990’s, accredited to any of several authors.  I used the term to describe my efforts in the artificial intelligence field, experimenting with new devices, the lisp programming language, and our first trial installations.  It seemed an ideal way to describe a scrappy, entrepreneurial activity.

So why do so many business-book authors stress the opposite behavior? Ready, FIRE, aim. What happens to careful planning, sure-fire metrics, quality test scenarios, market research, a good business plan – all in place before pulling the trigger of a new opportunity.

And who is right here?

[Email readers, continue here…]  If you’re seeking investment from anyone other than friends and family, you’re probably going to have to navigate through the exercise of careful planning, documentation and execution.  Investors are a fickle bunch in general.  They want to know that DB Concordia2their money is not just being thrown at an idea that will become a trial by fire – literally.

On the other side of the argument is the truth of the claim that numerous iterations in the form of rapid prototypes and execution of new ideas in the field quickly refine the product or service to meet the needs of the customer, and at a far faster and cheaper pace than with careful pre-planning.

In the software arena, there is a term for this: “cowboy coding.” Without the need to carefully document the architecture and elements of a proposed application, a single programmer can much more quickly just code, test, and create revised code.  Without even pausing to document the process internally, no-one can easily take over the job, if for any reason the cowboy coder is no longer in control.  And the result? Typically, we call that “spaghetti code” to signify code that is so often changed that it no longer looks clean and traceable.

The conclusion is that the best process depends upon the product, its critical core nature to the business using it, and the way in which the entrepreneur approaches the need for outside investors.

Critical components of any operation or business must be carefully constructed, tested and inserted into the operation of the business.   On the other hand, if a new free iPad app has bugs, they can be corrected in the next automatic update, and probably without much customer noise.

Which is better for you: rapid iteration or careful planning?  What is your case for defending your method of creating new products or services?

Posted in Ignition! Starting up, Positioning, Surrounding yourself with talent | 3 Comments

Build a company – not just a product.

Some businesses are built around a single idea.   And sometimes that idea is just too small a slice of the big picture to be interesting to investors.  There was a recent investor event where I was keynote speaker, on stage only after several panels of experts had wowed the audience with their predictions and observations.  One of the panelists made a point that resonated with me.

She stated that she had rejected the investment being discussed, because in her mind the entire company was “just a button, on a feature, in an app.”  That comment sent me thinking about relevance, about longevity, and about market size for some of these entrepreneurial applicants looking for funding.

If you have invented a game that will be marketed as a new app in the app store, have you created enough of a model to create an ongoing company, or just another app that will compete with the hundreds of thousands already in the store?  Is your game using a unique engine, or series of animated characters, or method of play that will break ground with potential players, inducing them to look to you for more and more unique games over time?

[Email readers, continue here…]  Far too many companies have been created around a button on a feature, and not upon a solution to a need in answer to a void in the market.  Investors have seen this game before.   We match what we see to what has succeeded for us in the past.  And rarely do we see a plan for a single product that is not part of a larger vision, and remain interested long enough to ask for more information.

There are exceptions.  The famously popular app, “Draw It,” might at first seem an exception, until you dig deeper to find a dense plan around a series of social engagement products planned to follow.   Can you extend your product into a planned series?   Plan to create apps, not buttons, and not features.

Posted in Finding your ideal niche, Ignition! Starting up, Positioning | Leave a comment

How to make a business partnership a success

By JJ Richa

Dave’s note:  Our guest insight this week is from JJ Richa.  JJ is a successful entrepreneur and technologist giving back to the entrepreneurial
community in many ways, including his weekly Internet TV program on entrepreneurism, and participation in several mentoring programs.   

Business partnerships have their advantages and disadvantages.  Taking on a business partner is like a entering into a marriage.  In general, partnerships are easy to get into and difficult to get out of.  Certain guidelines should be taken into consideration along with a path to follow – from dating to pre­nup to marriage – all of which can be applied to a business partnership.

Taking on a business partner can be an excellent strategic decision in helping move the business forward.  It should be well thought out for all parties involved. The relationship needs to be synergistic financially, emotionally, and operationally.  All parties need to perform due diligence to ensure that the assumptions are correct, that neither partner has financial issues which could affect the partnership, and that the opposite partner has the skills to contribute to the partnership.

[Email readers, continue here…]  Most of the important benefits for partnering include:

  • Combining of complimentary skill sets
  • Access to new markets
  • Addition of new services or product lines
  • Addition of essential expertise and knowledge to propel the business forward
  • Open doors to new distribution channels
  • Access to new technologies
  • Access to capital unavailable to either partner singly
From Basic Berkonomics: Available Amazon, B&N,  berkus.com and booksellers everywhere.

From Basic Berkonomics: Available Amazon, B&N, berkus.com and booksellers everywhere.

Certain steps should be taken before entering into a partnership.

1.   Personal assessment and getting to know one another:

  • Work together on 2-3 projects before an agreement is consummated
  • Determine the commitment of the potential partners. Is the potential partner in for the long haul?
  • Identify each of the partner’s unique contribution. Does the potential partner bring specialized knowledge, skills, leadership, or experience that compliments others?
  • Understand each person’s personal goals. Are each set of goals consistent with the other’s including for example personal wealth, business success, and autonomy?
  • Determine trust and Values. Is there trust between the parties? Do the proposed partners share a set of common values? Core values are none negotiable.  Be ready to walk away when others are willing to negotiate their own values or try to negotiate others.

2.  Determine personal and business goals:

  • Contribution:  What will the new partner contribute? Example: cash, assets, equipment, connections… Regardless of what it is, a partner’s contribution needs to increase the value of the business.
  • Compensation: What are compensation expectations? Example: salary, equity, joint venture, etc… Can the business afford it?
  • Control:  What type of control is the new partner looking for? Example: percent of ownership, officer/operational, director/board member… What are the parties willing to give up in return for the prospect of business success?
  • Brand and Success:  Is the new partner dedicated to ensuring brand continuity and contribute to the success, or just to ride on what has been established by the other?

3.  Create roles and guidelines in the potential partnership:

  • What role and responsibility will each of the partners have including operation, financial, sales, marketing, etc..?
  • How will decisions be made and by whom? Is it by committee?
  • Will each have certain level of decision making authority? Will the new process impair quick decision making?
  • Will authority limits be defined, and processes and procedures put in place?
  • What is the understanding if one of the partners wants out or wants more? What is the understanding if things go downhill/uphill?

4.  Perform preliminary due diligence:

  • Review the business plan including marketing, sales strategies and financial needs
  • Review long term company debt, goals, objectives and financial projections
  • Review financial statements – up to 3 years if available
  • Review tax returns – up to 3 years if available
  • Research and talk to existing and past customers

5. Create partnership agreement basic terms:

  • Define Key Performance Indicators (KPIs.) How will the success of the business be measured?
  • Clarify decision making and dispute resolution processes
  • Define each partner’s title and position
  • Define management responsibilities and job descriptions
  • Detail authority limits for each partner
  • Clarify operation responsibilities and metrics used to measure performance
  • Define vacations and time off policies such as with partners vacationing at the same time
  • Determine compensation for each partner
  • Exit strategy planning, including determining what happens when one partner leaves, if closing the business, if selling the business, creating a mutual buy/sell agreement, and more.

Depending on the legal structure of the business, different types of formal agreements may be required.

Partnership agreement should never be 50/50 regardless of the perception of compatibility at the time of execution.  There must be some method of resolving a tie that is predetermined in the agreement.

Potential partners should follow and apply these guidelines independently.  This should be followed by a joint meeting to determine commonalities, synergies, and conflicts.  If necessary, this is the time to bring in an impartial third party to facilitate any possible conflicts and resolutions.

It is highly recommended that legal document are created and/or reviewed by a business transaction attorney.  All agreements should be in writing and signed by all parties involved.  Regardless of what method is taken to reach an agreement among partners, avoid some of the common mistakes.  These include premature rejection of ideas by the other partner, prematurely judging others, one-sided financial consideration, and not sticking to core values.

 

Posted in Depending upon others, Ignition! Starting up, Protecting the business | 1 Comment

The five C’s of Business Partners: a marriage without the sex

By Richard Sudek

Dave’s note:  Our guest insight this week is by Richard Sudek, an associate professor of entrepreneurism at Chapman University Graduate School of Business.  He is Director of the Leatherby Center for Entrepreneurism and Business Ethics, and Chairman Emeritus of the Tech Coast Angels, the largest angel group in the United States.  Enjoy!    

In working with entrepreneurs over the years, I have learned that the difference between success and failure is often centered on the people aspects of the business rather than strategy, finance, or operations. It is not that strategy, finance, and operations are not important, but rather failure of the business is more likely attributed to people issues. Nowhere is this more evident than with the issues related to business partners. Thinking about a business partnership like a marriage might be helpful in how you go about selecting a business partner.

You are likely to spend more time with your business partner than your spouse in the early stages of launching a business. This relationship may last 5-20 years. In many ways having a business partner is like getting married. You will spend a lot of time with that person (many years), you are likely to have employees (similar to having kids), you are likely to have arguments (but no make-up sex), you are likely to compromise (will not always win each fight), and the breakup can be messy and expensive (divorce court). When you look at it this way, you may want to spend some extra time considering how to select a business partner. Thus, when thinking about partnerships I suggest you think of the 5 C’s: Confidence, Competency, Complementary, Compatibility, and Contract. Let’s start with confidence, since this is about you rather than your partner.

From Basic Berkonomics: Available Amazon, B&N,  berkus.com and booksellers everywhere.

From Basic Berkonomics: Available Amazon, B&N, berkus.com and booksellers everywhere.

Confidence is the first “C” because it refers to the confidence you have to launch your business. Sometimes an entrepreneur picks a partner because they experience some insecurity. This can range from emotional immaturity to functional insecurity. For instance, a good friend who now is in his 60s and was a very successful entrepreneur said he picked his first partner because he was insecure about his knowledge of finance. He felt he needed someone to compensate for this. It turned out that he really only needed a good bookkeeper and CPA. This partnership did not work well since the partner did not have much else to offer.

[Email readers, continue here…]  This might be the toughest “C” for younger entrepreneurs to deal with since it is really about self-assessment and introspection. How well do you really know yourself? Know your limitations? Your strengths? Ability to admit your weaknesses? You need to ask the question: Why do I need a partner? Is this what the business really needs? Or is this what I need? If what you need and the business needs are not the same, you might be seeking a partner for the wrong reason. Seek advice from mentors and other entrepreneurs who have been down this path before.

Competency is related to assessing a potential partner. The more experience you have the more you learn how to assess competency in others. This can range from a functional area such as marketing, or a people attribute like trust. Again, many younger entrepreneurs simply do not have the experience to do this well. This is when asking for help is important. The same entrepreneur who picked the wrong partner in the previous paragraph said now he would have multiple people interview a potential person, perform more due diligence on their background, and be much more thorough. When he was younger, he had too much arrogance to ask for help. The older you get, the less you worry about what you know, and focus more on what is the best way to get what you need.

Complementary is for picking a partner with complementary skills. Most of us think of this in functional areas, however, this is not the only area to seek complementary skills. It is important not to have significant overlap. For instance, if you are good at marketing,  don’t select a partner with a good marketing background. Find someone with technology, operations, manufacturing, or finance experience. Ask yourself, what skill does the business absolutely need?

But more importantly, are you complementary enough with this person to help make a complete CEO? Some of us act quickly and don’t think deeply. Some act slowly but think deeply. Some of us are more enthusiastic, or volatile, or quiet. The worst thing you can do is find someone similar in personality and functional areas. Two technologists who are introverted are unlikely to make a good partnership. Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak were a great example of being very different, yet these differences made for a very effective partnership.

Compatibility is related to how similar partners are on the dimensions of work ethic, integrity, style, and eventual outcome of the business or the exit among other issues. This is more of a personal fit issue rather than a functional fit. In other words – are you both going to work 100 hours a week in the beginning? When one partner feels they are putting more effort into the business, it is likely that resentment will build over time. Is how you frame integrity – and how you view different difficult choices that involve ethical issues similar? Something as simple as how to lay-off an employee and how much severance to offer can create significant disconnect with partners.

One time I was brought in to coach two partners. They had raised over a half million dollars, had fifteen employees, and thought they had strategic planning issues. What they had was a relationship problem. I ended up doing more couples counseling than CEO coaching or strategy work. They had never had the “exit” talk. They had not decided how or when they were going to exit, and what their personal dollar goal was for an exit. Be sure your personal issues related to the business have been discussed and are compatible.

Contract is the last “C” and might seem the most obvious. Every partnership needs to have a partner agreement, or in marriage terms, a pre-nup.  Do you know exactly how you are going to part ways if things do not go as you plan, or if you simply want to get out? Do you know how you are going to value the company, how long it will take to pay the amount, and what the penalties are if you are late in paying? Worse yet, what if your partner dies and you are stuck (both legally and emotionally) with the remaining spouse who does not know anything about the business or industry? Marriage is till death-do-you-part, but business partnerships include what happens after death. The problem with this level of detail is that it can be an uncomfortable discussion for most. Consider hiring a third party to walk you through this. Since that person should not have ulterior motives, as is more likely to ask the very difficult questions about what might appear to be an unlikely scenario questions.

Selecting a partner is sometimes necessary, and extremely difficult.  Few of us are complete CEOs.  So spend the time and energy to make the best decision you can. Ask for help to assess potential partners and to dig into personal values and issues.  And always have a contract.

Posted in General | Leave a comment

My dad said: “Never take on a business partner.”

My dad was a smart businessman, even if not formally trained. He occasionally gave me advice that turned out to be more than wise, looking back at subsequent experience and events.  His personal teaching event was a typical experience, as I reflect now upon the tens of partnerships I have counseled over the years.  Most often, one partner remained active as another partner drifted away from the business, no longer carrying the weight anticipated at start-up.

It’s just one – the most prevalent – of the many things that can happen to well-meaning partners after time changes plans, and after the business passes through phases of growth or contraction.

I recall one very personal situation when I was very young, that reinforces Dad’s advice. Through my college years, I managed a phonograph record production and manufacturing business that I created as a senior in high school, using independent contractors in local venues to record and edit ventureforwardweb-237the original tapes from recording musicals and performances from schools, colleges, churches and organizations throughout the USA and Canada – and then to sell the records to the appropriate audiences.

[Email readers, continue here…]  It grew to significant size during my college years, and I associated myself with a “strategic partner” throughout those years, ceding to him all recording and editing of work throughout the large home territory, and any national jobs we received. The agreement was that he would retain all of the revenues generated from those activities.  We called ourselves “partners” and received lots of press, even nationally, as we managed our teenage business.

A year after graduation from college, I left for six months to serve my active duty obligation in the US Navy, while others took care of accounting and customer relations.  And my “partner” left the company without notice and set up a competing company in my absence, never saying a word to any of us.  I was bitter, but unable to do anything about it, since there was no partnership agreement.  Luckily, after my return from active duty, my company flourished and his remained a small, one person operation for the rest of its existence.  But, as they say, everything he learned, he learned from me.  Dad was right, even if I learned the lesson years later.

Posted in Depending upon others, Ignition! Starting up | 9 Comments

Five Keys to Our Long Term Survival

Guest Post by William Fisher

Dave’s Note:  William Fisher is CEO of Quicksilver Software, a software and Internet game development company in Southern California.  Bill has survived multiple cycles in the game industry, and writes here his thoughts about his longevity in a volatile niche.

I think the number one factor in my endurance is building strong relationships with members of my team, so that they are supportive when things go badly, as they sometimes do in this business. I’ve gotten into a bit of a hole in the past few years because of the slowdown, but always tried to bend over backward to help people out and treat them as well as possible. Even when they feel they have to leave, they always tell me that their time working for me has been very positive. I develop people, and they know/appreciate that. I support them in moving on. We have a large alumni base now, some of whom bring me work now that they’re in positions of strength at other companies.

Second factor is that we deliver. In a business that’s known for contractors who perform poorly or completely collapse, we have a very solid track record. Not perfect — there’s always the one situation where something went awry — but for us those are few and far between. I think that comes from our ability to truly understand the problem and to propose technically realistic solutions. I get a lot of calls from people who say “I

Berkonomics books available at www.berkus.com

Berkonomics books available at www.berkus.com

worked with you X years ago and it was great, so I want to do that again.” Just visited Disney this week, for example, because our producer on a previous product was very happy with us and wanted her bosses to consider using our team. That’s a big win.

 [Email readers, continue here…]   Third is flexibility. I once tried to focus on a single type of business, on the advice of a business development guy. Huge mistake. When we were unable to get traction in that one business, we just about lost it all. We’re successful because we specialize in “hard problems” but not in any one vertical market. It turns out that that’s a good way for small, nimble companies to survive. Interestingly, we’ve won a number of deals by being the not-offshore alternative. Most people I know have had extremely bad experiences with offshore development. I’m working with a friend who’s got a Silicon Valley startup which made the mistake of hiring a Romanian development team. They’ve promised me founders stock in their company if I fish them out of the hole, which I’m well on my way to doing.

Fourth is embracing change. We know that the market changes every few years, and we’re always looking over the horizon at new technologies. Often, I can get clients to fund efforts to learn new tech because nobody else knows it, either, and we all need to learn it. Did that with iPhone/iPad, for example, which is now a big part of our business. Now we’re doing it again with various Web toolkits, since everything we do now has a heavy back-end component. I hire people who are eager to do new things and work hard not to become obsolete.

Fifth is having a solid ability to understand client needs. Most of the time in meetings, potential customers come away with the impression that I really understand their requirements. When trying to sell your skills, that’s critical. I can do it because I’ve gotten good at drilling down below the surface and seeing the real problem that they’re trying to solve. Plus, I tend to enjoy learning about new subject matter. It’s fun to see what people are doing and to create novel solutions. We’re just starting a new project in the medical field, for example. We are uniquely effective at solving complex user interface issues, and that’s what they need more than anything else. Yet we also understand how to deal with patient privacy laws, which are critical possible points of failure.

Bill Fisher can be found on LinkedIn at   http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bill-fisher/0/104/314 or email at bfisher@quicksilver.com.

 

Posted in Finding your ideal niche, Hedging against downturns | 1 Comment

Could you answer these tough investor questions?

 By: Arthur Lipper

In the process of raising funds to create and develop a business, entrepreneurs make many statements to those they seek to attract as investors. In my years of investing, I’ve developed a set of tough questions that are sure to elicit both information and a vibrant dialog – questions not on the usual checklists of angel groups or investors.  So here are a number of them.  Can you answer these? If not, isn’t it worth the work to prepare for the time you’ll be asked some or many of these? And isn’t it worth the effort for your own good as you build for success?

If you are an investor in an early stage venture, wouldn’t a dialog using these questions help greatly in defining and perhaps reducing your risk?

Revenue projections: What will happen to the company if the revenues and earnings projected on a worst case basis are not achieved as predicted?   When will the company run out of money if the development of the enterprise is at a slower rate than expected?  How much skin do you and your fellow founders have in the game?  In a liquidation, would you have profited at the expense of your investors by taking high salary or draws before breakeven?

Order all 3 Berkonomics books for $49.95,a 33% discount.  www.berkus.com

Order all 3 Berkonomics books for $49.95,a 33% discount. www.berkus.com

Liquidity event: Name at least five companies that might be ready to acquire the enterprise if successful.  On the flip side of success, which companies or individuals are most likely to want to buy whatever is left of the company if it is unsuccessful?

[Email readers, continue here…]  Metrics and management: What might be the first indication the company will not be able to achieve its goals and objectives?  When and under what conditions should the CEO and management of the company be changed?

Valuation and fund-raising: How did you arrive at your proposed pre-money valuation?  Has this been tested with investors?  Who else has been approached to provide funds? What will the proposed managers of the enterprise do if the project does not proceed?Management experience and skin-in-the-game: What has been the experience of the founders and managers in past ventures?  Will you and your managers plan to invest cash on the same terms and conditions as you ask?  Would you and your managers invest funds, if loaned to them by the investor or others, in the enterprise on the same terms and conditions as is being proposed to the investor?

Profit potential: What is the proportionate profit potential relative to cash investment between the investor(s) and the managers in the event the business is as successful as is predicted?  What is the single most important event you expect to foresee for success, and what will happen if it does not occur when anticipated?

As most human endeavors fail to achieve the results originally hoped for the above questions are fair and reasonable – because your angel investor is being asked to accept your forecasts and event predictions to entice him or her to invest in your enterprise.

Arthur Lipper has been a well-respected member of the international financial community since 1954. He has served as advisor to and member of numerous financial exchanges, and was the founder and CEO of Arthur Lipper Corporation and co-founder and Chairman of New York & Foreign Securities Corporation. Today he serves as Chairman of British Far East Holdings Ltd. He has written numerous books and articles for entrepreneurs and investors, and was the publisher and editor-in-chief of Venture Magazine.

Posted in Finding your ideal niche, Raising money | 6 Comments

Include your labor value in your plan.

Investors love it when entrepreneurs draw little or no money from their startups.  It extends the cash available for research and other necessary fixed costs and gives the fragile, young company more “runway” to get to breakeven.

But when forecasting the ultimate viability of a business, many times an entrepreneurial founder uses a low, unsustainable salary rate for him or herself in order to show early breakeven.  And that is the quandary for investors.  If you had to replace yourself with a professional hired to duplicate your skills, what would you have to pay in salary and incentive today?  That amount is almost always higher, much higher, than the amount budgeted for the entrepreneur.

You could start by charging more for your executive salary, then paying out less in cash, accruing the rest into a payable amount due to the entrepreneur.   But

Berkus.com

Berkus.com

that is a messy way to demonstrate that you are taking less than market wages from your company.  Ultimately, the accrued difference will amount to a large enough liability that several things could happen, all of them negative.

[Email readers, continue here…]  The IRS could see that you are not paying yourself interest on the accrued debt, and consider it invested capital, eliminating your ability to repay yourself in the future. Worse yet, the IRS would then consider the accrued amount to be taxable income upon which no tax was paid, since the accrued labor as an investment has value that was not accounted for from previously taxed earnings.  Or you could voluntarily convert the loan into stock with a single journal entry and a stock certificate. But the tax effect would be the same if audited – you would owe tax on the booked value.

The solution is to explain to potential investors that you are projecting under-market wages for the founder(s) for a period of time, perhaps until breakeven, and then  to agree with them that you will move to market rate at that time.

Posted in Growth!, Ignition! Starting up | 1 Comment

Accurate assumptions lead to defendable plans

The biggest error in planning may not be spreadsheet calculation error.  Or cost estimation.  It is most often missed assumptions about the market, the competition, the speed of adoption, or other critical metrics you’ve researched, or selected, or even just guessed at to create your plan.

Where did you get the data to drive your assumptions of market size or market share?  Most entrepreneurs quote a resource for market size, but fail to then take the next step to eliminate all parts of that market unreachable by the company or product.  For example, if you supply software to the chip design industry, do you segment your market into digital and analog users, into high end or inexpensive buyers, and into which languages or platforms users demand or request?

DB Concordia2It’s easy to find someone to quote a size of market estimate.  I became something of my industry’s source for such a number when I carefully catalogued the 160 players both domestic and international, estimated revenues from knowing the number of employees or installations for each (which were often public knowledge or stated by those companies.)  I then created a gross domestic and gross international annual market size estimate for my industry’s products.  No-one challenged this number, and it became an unattributed source of the metric for market size for years.  Perhaps there was no other way to project the size of that market.  But many decisions were made within my company walls, and surely by competitors, based upon those numbers.

[Email readers, continue here…]  Then there is the famous entrepreneur’s statement about market share: “All I need to sell is one percent of the total available market to make this a rampant success.”  We call that the “gloves in China” syndrome when analyzing assumptions within business plans. Without a trace of how the business will get that one percent, the entrepreneur confidently shows that this is all it takes to make us all rich.  Even if the total number of annual units in a market is known, the leap to a percent of that market without a specific plan is often a fatal one.

And these are just two of the many assumptions that underlie any business plan.  At the very least, all assumptions should be driven by numbers separately listed in an “assumptions section” of the planning spreadsheet, allowing the reader to manipulate those assumptions to see the various outcomes, and challenge the numbers for the benefit of all who have to defend them.

Posted in Finding your ideal niche, Ignition! Starting up, Raising money | 1 Comment