https://berkonomics.com/?p=3462&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=business-risk-bet-the-farm-only-when-the-crops-are-on-fire Dave Berkus' business insights Wed, 27 Jun 2018 21:55:49 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 https://berkonomics.com/?p=3462&cpage=1#comment-118088 Wed, 27 Jun 2018 21:55:49 +0000 https://berkonomics.com/?p=3462#comment-118088 Edsel, anyone?

]]> https://berkonomics.com/?p=3462&cpage=1#comment-118025 Tue, 26 Jun 2018 18:25:38 +0000 https://berkonomics.com/?p=3462#comment-118025 Definitely one of the best bits of wisdom I’ve heard in a while!

]]> https://berkonomics.com/?p=3462&cpage=1#comment-118020 Tue, 26 Jun 2018 17:03:19 +0000 https://berkonomics.com/?p=3462#comment-118020 It’s a tricky analysis. On one hand, each Vegas bet is independent of the prior bet. Tossing a coin has a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails. The odds on the next coin toss are unaffected by the prior coin toss. But, on the other hand, the Law of Large Numbers suggests a kind of ‘regression toward to mean.’ But the Law of Large Numbers applies only to repeated experiments, not a new experiment (as would be the case of the Ford Mustang as opposed to Ford’s single sedan).

]]>